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Forecasting regional industrial production with high-frequency electricity consumption data

Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022

conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425

The great mortgaging : housing finance, crises, and business cycles

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2014

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412763

Appropriate fiscal policy over the business cycle : proper stimulus policies can work

Graves, Philip E. - 2010

Fiscal policy has become quite controversial in the post-Keynesian era, the debate over the Obama stimulus package being a contentious recent example. Some pundits go so far as to take the position that macroeconomic theory has failed to meaningfully progress in terms of providing useful...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008653412

Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions

Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-León, Danilo; Sims, Eric R. - 2021

In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584223

Inefficiency in social security trust funds forecasts

Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration's projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668902

Forecastability and statistical characteristics of aggregate oil and gas investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf

Lorentzen, Sindre; Osmundsen, Petter - 2016

We investigate the potential for statistical forecasting of aggregate oil and gas investment on the Norwegian …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011544319

Looking into the black box of boosting : the case of Germany

Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2015

This paper looks into the 'fine print' of boosting for economic forecasting. By using German industrial production for … selected by the boosting algorithm over time and four different forecasting horizons. It turns out that a number of hard … therefore important to forecasting the performance of the German economy. However, there are indicators such as money supply …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411839

Real-time state-space method for computing smoothed estimates of future revisions of U.S. monthly chained CPI

Zadrozny, Peter A. - 2016

Well known CPI of urban consumers is never revised. Recently initiated chained CPI is initially released every month (ICPI), for that month without delay within BLS and for the previous month with one month delay to the public. Final estimates of chained CPI (FCPI) are released every February...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474973

Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data

Garnitz, Johanna; Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2019

Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026466

Tracking and predicting the German economy : ifo vs. PMI

Lehmann, Robert; Reif, Magnus - 2020

This analysis investigates the predictive power of the most important leading indicators for the German economy, which are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of gross domestic product and growth of gross value added...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174766