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Forecasting regional industrial production with high-frequency electricity consumption data

Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022

conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425

The great mortgaging : housing finance, crises, and business cycles

Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2014

This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412763

Appropriate fiscal policy over the business cycle : proper stimulus policies can work

Graves, Philip E. - 2010

Fiscal policy has become quite controversial in the post-Keynesian era, the debate over the Obama stimulus package being a contentious recent example. Some pundits go so far as to take the position that macroeconomic theory has failed to meaningfully progress in terms of providing useful...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008653412

Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions

Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-León, Danilo; Sims, Eric R. - 2021

In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584223

Economic Uncertainty Before and During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Altig, David - 2020

We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the Covid-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business growth, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829721

Sudden stop: when did firms anticipate the potential consequences of COVID-19?

Buchheim, Lukas; Krolage, Carla; Link, Sebastian - 2020

COVID-19 hit firms by surprise. In a high frequency, representative panel of German firms, the business outlook declined and business uncertainty increased only when the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to domestic policy changes: The announcement of nation-wide school closures on March 13...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249044

The effect of shocks to labour market flows on unemployment and participation rates

Dixon, Robert J.; Lim, Guay C.; Ours, Jan C. van - 2014

This paper studies collective contests with endogenous cost sharing, general effort costs and intra-group heterogeneity of prize-valuation. Our objective is to clarify the relationship between cost sharing, intra-group heterogeneity within the competing groups and the elasticity of the marginal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010361496

Boosting and regional economic forecasting : the case dof Germany

Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2016

This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a … pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two … economic forecasting. We additionally take a closer look into the algorithm and ask which indicators get selected. All in all …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557750

Tracking and predicting the German economy : ifo vs. PMI

Lehmann, Robert; Reif, Magnus - 2020

This analysis investigates the predictive power of the most important leading indicators for the German economy, which are provided by the ifo Institute and IHS Markit. We conduct an out-of-sample, real-time forecast experiment for growth of gross domestic product and growth of gross value added...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174766

Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data

Garnitz, Johanna; Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2019

Comprehensive and international comparable leading indicators across countries and continents are rare. In this paper, we use a free and instantaneous available source of leading indicators, the ifo World Economic Survey (WES), to forecast growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 44 countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026466