This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy on the UK economy based on a new, extensive real-time forecast data … the UK economy. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate reduces output by up to 0.6% and inflation …

We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the Covid-19 pandemic: implied … January 2020) in two-year implied volatility on the S&P 500 and subjective uncertainty around year-ahead sales for UK firms to … a 20-fold rise in forecaster disagreement about UK growth. Third, time paths also differ: implied volatility rose …

effects of such a macroprudential policy on mortgage and house price cycles. For identification, we exploit the universe of UK …

This paper analyses the local lockdown measures introduced to contain the spread of Covid-19 in the UK. We use a …. During the local lockdowns, the average turnover growth for SMEs in the UK was around -20%. SMEs that were up to two …

exploit a novel regulatory change in the UK to identify an exogenous intensification of the leverage ratio and combine this …

We use a major new survey of UK firms, the Decision Maker Panel, to assess the impact of the June 2016 Brexit … referendum. We identify three key results. First, the UK's decision to leave the EU has generated a large, broad and long …. Finally, the Brexit process is estimated to have reduced UK productivity by between 2% and 5% over the three years after the …

the United States; and a supply shock that raises US productivity relative to other countries. The impact on UK output and … raise UK exports and output, but would also contribute to increased inflationary pressure in the United Kingdom. Further … weakness in US domestic demand is likely to weigh on UK output and inflation. Productivity gains in the United States relative …