We explore the effects of forward guidance at the zero lower bound when there is uncertainty over the lift-off date arising from: (i) the imperfect credibility of time-inconsistent forward-guidance promises; (ii) incomplete communication. We use a simple New Keynesian model to demonstrate that a...

This paper uses transaction data to estimate how single stock circuit breakers on the London Stock Exchange affect other stocks that remain in continuous trading. This ‘spillover' effect is estimated by calculating the effect of a trading halt on the market quality of stocks that remain in...

Central banks' decisions are a function of forecasts of macroeconomic fundamentals. Because private sector forecasts are not bound to be equal to central banks' forecasts, what markets label as unexpected may or may not be unanticipated by the central bank. Monetary surprises can thus...

We examine whether emerging market prudential policies offset the macro-financial spillover effects of US monetary policy. We find that emerging markets with tighter overall prudential policy face significantly smaller, and less negative, spillovers to total credit from US monetary policy...

We show that credit spreads rise after a monetary policy tightening, yet spread reactions are heterogeneous across firms. Exploiting information from a unique panel of corporate bonds matched with balance sheet data for US non-financial firms, we document that firms with high leverage experience...

This paper presents a theoretical model of strategic default to assess how national and international policymakers should seek to influence the cost of default and the distribution of bargaining power in the event of a default. We find that, in the absence of restrictions on the parameter space,...

This paper reviews the empirical literature on international spillovers and contagion. Theoretical models of spillover and contagion imply that the reduced form observable variables suffer from two possible sources of bias: endogeneity and omitted variables. These econometric problems in...

We estimate a New Keynesian model with matching frictions and nominal wage rigidities on UK data. We are able to identify important structural parameters, recover the unobservable shocks that have affected the UK economy since 1971 and study the transmission mechanism. With matching frictions,...

The identification of reduced-form VAR model had been the subject of numerous debates in the literature. Different sets of identifying assumptions can lead to very different conclusions in the policy debate. This paper proposes a theoretically consistent identification strategy using...

I assess the use of overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates as measures of monetary policy expectations. I find that one to twelve-month US OIS rates provide measures of investors' interest rate expectations that are comparable to those from corresponding-horizon federal funds futures rates, which...