We develop a model that can explain the evolution of trend inflation in the United States in the three decades before the Great Recession as a function of the reduction in uncertainty about the monetary policy maker's behaviour. The model features ambiguity-averse agents and ambiguity regarding...

When the economy is in a liquidity trap and households have a precautionary motive to save against unemployment risk, adverse demand shocks cause severe deflationary spirals and output contractions. In this context, we study the implications of optimal monetary policy, which consists of keeping...

The global financial crisis prompted the rapid development of macro-prudential frameworks and an increased reliance on borrower-based policy tools, which influence the demand for credit. This paper studies the optimal design of one such tool, a loan-to-value (LTV) limit, and its implications for...

In this paper, we use an estimated DSGE model of the UK economy to investigate perceptions of the effectiveness of monetary policy since the onset of the 2007–08 financial crisis in a number of measures of deflation probability — the Survey of Economic Forecasts, financial-market option...

This paper explores monetary-macroprudential policy interactions in a simple, calibrated New Keynesian model incorporating the possibility of a credit boom precipitating a financial crisis and a loss function reflecting financial stability considerations. Deploying the countercyclical capital...

This paper studies optimal time‑consistent monetary policy in a simple New Keynesian model with long‑term nominal government debt. Fiscal policy is ‘active’, so that stabilisation of the government debt stock is a binding constraint on monetary policy. Away from the lower bound on the...

We examine whether emerging market prudential policies offset the macro-financial spillover effects of US monetary policy. We find that emerging markets with tighter overall prudential policy face significantly smaller, and less negative, spillovers to total credit from US monetary policy...

We show that interest rate rules that feed back on the growth rates of target variables (such as output or asset prices) may induce recessions in the presence of a zero lower bound, through purely self-fulfilling dynamics. This pathology is illustrated in a small New Keynesian model with...

Long-term asset purchases carried out by central banks increase the consumption volatility of households holding long-term debt. For this reason, monetary authorities should not just aim at stabilising inflation and the output gap but also mitigate the volatility of their balance sheet. In...

The existence of and uncertainty about structural change in the economy are important features facing policymakers. This paper considers the implications for policy design of uncertainty about structural change, modelling the time variation in parameters of forward-looking models as Markov...