Motivated by policies implemented by some central banks in response to the financial crisis, we use a simple New Keynesian model to study a particular form of forward guidance. We assume that the policy maker makes a state-contingent commitment to hold the policy rate at the zero lower bound...

In this paper, we use an open economy model of the United Kingdom to examine the extent to which monetary policy should respond to movements in sectoral inflation rates. To do this we construct a Generalised Taylor model that takes specific account of the sectoral make up of the consumer price...

We explore the effects of forward guidance at the zero lower bound when there is uncertainty over the lift-off date arising from: (i) the imperfect credibility of time-inconsistent forward-guidance promises; (ii) incomplete communication. We use a simple New Keynesian model to demonstrate that a...

This paper aims to contribute to our understanding of inflation dynamics in the United Kingdom by estimating two dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and assessing the role of nominal and real rigidities within them. We first obtain an empirical representation of the monetary...

Market-based measures of inflation expectations can be derived either from the difference between yields on nominal and inflation-linked government bonds or from inflation swap rates. These measures are important indicators of the outlook for inflation and are monitored regularly by the United...

We show that exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices varies not only across countries, but also over time. Previous literature has highlighted the role of an economy's ‘structure' — such as its inflation volatility, inflation rate, use of foreign currency invoicing, and openness — in...

Determinacy is ensured in the New Keynesian model when firms face imperfect common knowledge, regardless of whether the Taylor principle is satisfied. Strategic complementarity in pricing and idiosyncratic noise in firms' signals, however small, are together sufficient to eliminate...

Since the Great Recession policy rates have been extremely low, but neither absolutely constant, nor exactly set to zero. We thus augment a standard zero lower bound model to study the effects of a stochastic lower bound (SLB) on policy rates. We find that a less predictable SLB helps keep...

In this paper we explore the link between monetary policy and market power. We start by establishing several facts on market power in UK markets using micro data. First, while no clear trend emerges for market concentration, market power measured by markups estimated at the firm level have...

In this paper, we use an estimated DSGE model of the UK economy to investigate perceptions of the effectiveness of monetary policy since the onset of the 2007–08 financial crisis in a number of measures of deflation probability — the Survey of Economic Forecasts, financial-market option...