In this paper we investigate the price, volatility and micro-level effects of central bank swap lines during the 2020 pandemic. These policies lowered the ceiling on covered interest rate parity violations and reduced volatility following settlement of swap line auctions. We then combine...

The sign of the correlation between equity returns and exchange rate returns can be positive or negative in theory. Using data for a broad set of 42 countries, we find that exchange rate movements are in fact unrelated to differentials in country-level equity returns. Consequently, a trading...

We show that currencies with a steeper yield curve tend to depreciate at business cycle horizons, in violation of uncovered interest parity. The yield curve adds no explanatory power over and above spot yield differentials in explaining exchange rates at longer horizons. Analysing bond holding...

This paper investigates the role of external balance sheet variables as determinants of currency crises in emerging market (EME) and advanced economies. A random effect probit model is used in a panel of 40 countries with monthly data over the January 1980-December 2004 period. The main results...

This paper presents the main findings of an International Banking Research Network initiative examining the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy in determining international bank lending. We give an overview on the data, empirical specifications and results of the seven...

We show that exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices varies not only across countries, but also over time. Previous literature has highlighted the role of an economy's ‘structure' — such as its inflation volatility, inflation rate, use of foreign currency invoicing, and openness — in...

This paper sheds lights on the open economy dimension of the Fed information effect, by evaluating its international spillovers on exchange rates, capital flows, and global economic activity. We provide empirical evidence that in response to unexpected increases in the Federal Funds rate...

With an increasingly integrated global financial system, we frequently observe that shocks to individual asset markets affect financial markets worldwide. The aim of this paper is to quantify the comovements between bond markets in the US and emerging market economies using daily data from prior...

We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction using machine learning techniques on macrofinancial data for 17 countries over 1870–2016. Machine learning models mostly outperform logistic regression in out-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of...

While standard no-arbitrage term structure models are estimated using nominal yields from a single country, a growing literature estimates joint models of yields in multiple countries or nominal and real yields from a single country. However, this paper argues that, in two of the most common...