We present a framework for measuring the evolution of risks to financial stability over the financial cycle, which we apply to the United Kingdom. We identify 29 indicators of financial stability risk, drawing from the literature on early warning indicators of banking crises. We normalise and...

Tail interdependence is defined as the situation where extreme outcomes for some variables are informative about such outcomes for other variables. We extend the concept of multi-information to quantify tail interdependence at different levels of extremity, decompose it into systemic and...

Since Basel II was introduced in 2008, two approaches to calculating bank capital requirements have co-existed: lenders' internal models, and a less risk-sensitive standardised approach. Using a unique dataset covering 7 million UK mortgages for 2005–15, and novel identification, we provide...

We study solvency contagion risk in the UK banking system from 2008 to 2015. We develop a model that only accounts for losses transmitted after banks default, but also for losses due to the fact that creditors revalue their exposures when probabilities of default of their counterparties change....

We present a framework focused on the interdependence of high-dimensional tail events. This framework allows us to analyse and quantify tail interdependence at different levels of extremity, decompose it into systemic and residual part and to measure the contribution of a constituent to the...

Structured credit instruments offer an insight into markets’ perceptions of the extent of future credit defaults. Claims of different seniorities incur losses only if defaults reach different magnitudes, so their relative value offers an insight into the likelihood of losses being of different...

We systematically analyse how network structure and bank characteristics affect solvency distress contagion risk in interbank networks. As interbank networks become more connected and more regular in structure, the contagion risk of system-wide shocks and individual bank defaults initially...

Recent supply disruptions catapulted the issue of risk in global supply chains (GSCs) to the top of policy agendas and created the impression that shortages would have been less severe if GSCs were either shorter and more domestic, or more diversified. But is this right? We start our answer by...