This paper studies how non-Gaussian shocks affect risk premia in DSGE models approximated to second and third order. Based on an extension of the work by Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe to third order, we derive propositions for how rare disasters, stochastic volatility, and GARCH affect any risk premia...

This paper re-examines the evolution of the US monetary transmission mechanism using an empirical framework that incorporates substantially more information than the standard tri-variate VAR model used in most previous studies. In particular, we employ an extended version of a factor-augmented...

It is important to understand how companies set prices, since price-setting behaviour plays a key role in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Many surveys have been conducted in a range of countries to shed light on this issue by asking companies directly about how they set prices. This...

A large empirical literature has examined the transmission mechanism of structural shocks in great detail. The possible role played by changes in the volatility of shocks has largely been overlooked in vector autoregression based applications. This paper proposes an extended vector...

This paper introduces the Bank of England's new forecasting platform and provides examples of how it can be applied to practical forecasting problems. The platform consists of four components: COMPASS, a structural central organising model; a suite of models, used to fill in the gaps in the...

Interacted panel VAR (IPVAR) models allow coefficients to vary as a deterministic function of observable country characteristics. The varying coefficient Bayesian panel VAR generalises this to the stochastic case. As an application of this framework, I examine if the impact of commodity price...

This paper uses two affine term structure models from the Duffie-Kan class - a three-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, and a three-factor model in the spirit of Longstaff and Schwartz - to extract historical estimates of foreign exchange risk premia for the pound with respect to the US dollar....

We exploit the marked changes in UK monetary arrangements since the metallic standards era to investigate continuity and changes across monetary regimes in key macroeconomic stylised facts in the United Kingdom. We find that, historically, inflation persistence has been the exception, rather...

This paper re-examines the empirical evidence on the price puzzle and proposes a new theoretical interpretation. Using structural VARs and two different identification strategies based on zero restrictions and sign restrictions, we find that the positive response of prices to a monetary policy...

We explore the effects of forward guidance at the zero lower bound when there is uncertainty over the lift-off date arising from: (i) the imperfect credibility of time-inconsistent forward-guidance promises; (ii) incomplete communication. We use a simple New Keynesian model to demonstrate that a...