By combining analysis of two unique confidential datasets, we examine how euro-area (EA) monetary policy and recipient-country prudential policy interact to influence the cross-border lending of French banks from France and the UK. We find that monetary spillovers via cross-border lending can be...

The contractual approach proposes the introduction of clauses in sovereign debt contracts to address a number of inefficiencies in sovereign debt markets. Two of its central innovations are collective action clauses and seniority clauses. This paper analyses these two clauses when: (1) repayment...

This paper assesses the extent to which common factors underlie indicators of vulnerability to financial crises in emerging market economies and whether this link is changing over time. We use a Bayesian dynamic common factor model to estimate their common component in a sample of up to 41...

This study investigates the systematic risk factors driving emerging market (EM) credit risk by jointly modelling sovereign and corporate credit spreads at a global level. We use a multi-regional Bayesian panel VAR model, with time-varying betas and multivariate stochastic volatility. This model...

We use a new database on macroprudential policy actions to examine whether macroprudential regulations affect international banking flows. We find evidence that borrowing by the domestic non-bank sector from foreign banks increases after home authorities take a macroprudential capital action. We...

This paper studies the determinants of capital flows defined as gross external bond and syndicated loan issuance to a group of emerging market economies (EMEs) since 1992. We follow the previous literature by estimating an explicit disequilibrium demand and supply model of capital flows using...

This paper presents a theoretical model of strategic default to assess how national and international policymakers should seek to influence the cost of default and the distribution of bargaining power in the event of a default. We find that, in the absence of restrictions on the parameter space,...

This paper develops a model to analyse the optimal choice between bank loans and bond finance for a sovereign debtor. We show that if banks have better information about their borrowers compared to bondholders, only the least risky sovereigns issue bonds. But if borrowers can be 'publicly...

Motivated by the traditional business cycle approach of Burns and Mitchell (1946), we explore cyclical similarities in financial conditions over time in order to improve our understanding of financial cycles. Looking back at 120 years of data, we find that financial cycles exhibit behaviour...

This paper provides novel empirical evidence on the effect of dislocations in FX swap markets (‘CIP deviations') on bank lending. Using balance sheet data from UK banks we show that when the cost of obtaining swap-based funds in a particular foreign currency increases, banks reduce the supply...