This paper aims to contribute to our understanding of inflation dynamics in the United Kingdom by estimating two …

Market-based measures of inflation expectations can be derived either from the difference between yields on nominal and … inflation-linked government bonds or from inflation swap rates. These measures are important indicators of the outlook for … inflation and are monitored regularly by the United Kingdom's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), alongside other measures of …

We develop a model that can explain the evolution of trend inflation in the United States in the three decades before … inflation arises endogenously and has these determinants: the strength with which the central bank responds to inflation, the … degree of uncertainty about monetary policy perceived by the private sector, and, if it exists, the inflation target. Given …

Several industrialised countries have had a similar inflation experience in the past 30 years, with inflation high and … volatile in the 1970s and the 1980s but low and stable in the most recent period. We explore the dynamics of inflation in these … countries via a time-varying factor model. This statistical model is used to describe movements in inflation that are …

We develop a method of quantifying the uncertainty surrounding the estimates of the fundamental inflation implied by … the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The uncertainty is represented as a band around the fundamental inflation, and … a projection of real marginal costs. An empirical application on UK and US data confirms that fundamental inflation …

2% by the start of 2011, with an impact on inflation of 1 percentage point around a year later. These estimates are …

inflation-targeting regimes are associated with a short position in foreign currency, while the opposite is true for non … inflation targeting regimes. We also explore how these different external positions affect the international transmission of … monetary shocks through the valuation channel. When central banks follow inflation-targeting Taylor-type rules, valuation …