contribution to fluctuations in, the real exchange rate, output growth and inflation in four major economies over the past four … focused on inflation and output and the time-varying impact of monetary policy on these variables. In addition we generalise … as follows. The transmission of demand, supply and nominal shocks to the real exchange rate, output and inflation has …

We develop a method of quantifying the uncertainty surrounding the estimates of the fundamental inflation implied by … the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The uncertainty is represented as a band around the fundamental inflation, and … a projection of real marginal costs. An empirical application on UK and US data confirms that fundamental inflation …

Several industrialised countries have had a similar inflation experience in the past 30 years, with inflation high and … volatile in the 1970s and the 1980s but low and stable in the most recent period. We explore the dynamics of inflation in these … countries via a time-varying factor model. This statistical model is used to describe movements in inflation that are …

shocks to the Bank of England's inflation and output projections on the term structure of UK private inflation expectations … proceed in three steps. First, we correct our dependent variables - market-based inflation expectation measures - for … potential risk, liquidity and inflation risk premia. Second, we extract exogenous shocks following Romer and Romer (2004)'s …

This paper aims to contribute to our understanding of inflation dynamics in the United Kingdom by estimating two …

2% by the start of 2011, with an impact on inflation of 1 percentage point around a year later. These estimates are …

Market-based measures of inflation expectations can be derived either from the difference between yields on nominal and … inflation-linked government bonds or from inflation swap rates. These measures are important indicators of the outlook for … inflation and are monitored regularly by the United Kingdom's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), alongside other measures of …

We develop a model that can explain the evolution of trend inflation in the United States in the three decades before … inflation arises endogenously and has these determinants: the strength with which the central bank responds to inflation, the … degree of uncertainty about monetary policy perceived by the private sector, and, if it exists, the inflation target. Given …