The New Keynesian Phillips Curve plays a central role in modern macroeconomic theory. A vast empirical literature has estimated this structural relationship over various post-war full samples. While it is well known that in a standard sticky price model a 'weak' central bank response to...

Using security-level data, we analyse the effects of the Bank of England's multiple rounds of gilt purchases (aka Quantitative Easing, QE) and its Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme (aka Credit Easing, CE) on corporate bond prices and issuance. This allows direct estimation of (i) QE's cross-asset...

One way quantitative easing (QE) purchases of government bonds by central banks may affect the yield curve is by creating scarcity in the purchased securities, leading to an increase in their prices or equivalently a reduction in their yields. We analyse and compare the importance of this...

In this paper, I estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the United Kingdom. The basic building blocks of the model are standard in the literature. The main complication is that there are three consumption goods: non-energy output, petrol and utilities; given relative...

The purpose of this paper is to examine how important an improvement in global monetary policy might be for the macroeconomic performance of a small open economy such as the United Kingdom. Our paper contributes to the literature by proposing a new methodology to treat indeterminate solutions...

We develop a model that can explain the evolution of trend inflation in the United States in the three decades before the Great Recession as a function of the reduction in uncertainty about the monetary policy maker's behaviour. The model features ambiguity-averse agents and ambiguity regarding...

This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy on the UK economy based on a new, extensive real-time forecast data set. Employing the Romer–Romer identification approach we first construct a new measure of monetary policy innovations for the UK economy. We find that a 1 percentage point...

This paper constructs a new series of monetary policy surprises for the United Kingdom and estimates their effects on macroeconomic and financial variables, employing a high-frequency identification procedure. First, using local projections methods, we find that monetary policy has persistent...

From the introduction of the euro up to the 2008 global financial crisis, macroeconomic imbalances widened among Member States. This divergence took the form of strong differences in the dynamics of unit labour costs. This paper asks why this happened. Is it the result of distortionary public...

We introduce a novel data set to analyze the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on SME cash flows. The crisis led to a sharp drop in economic activity in the UK, which hit SMEs harder than larger businesses. The data set comprises monthly information on all 2 million SMEs that have current accounts...