In this paper, we analyse the effects of a shock to global financial uncertainty and risk aversion on real economic activity. To this end, we extract a common factor from the realised volatilities of about 1,000 risky asset returns from around the world. We then study how shocks to the factor...

This paper evaluates whether recent advances in modelling the extensive margin of exports contribute to our understanding of export fluctuations over the business cycle. Using US and euro-area data, we estimate a general equilibrium model in which the extensive margin of exports varies over the...

We explore the role of ‘dollar shortage' shocks and central bank swap lines in a two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions. Domestic banks issue both domestic and foreign currency debt and lend in domestic currency. Foreign currency-specific funding shocks, which are amplified...

We examine the impact of the first phase of the Bank of England's quantitative easing (QE) programme during March 2009 to January 2010 on the UK government bond (gilt) market, using high-frequency disaggregated data on individual gilts. We find that: QE announcements took varying amounts of time...

A number of OECD countries experienced an environment of low interest rates and a rapid increase in housing market activity during the last decade. Previous work suggests three potential explanations for these events: expansionary monetary policy, capital inflows due to a global savings glut and...

Interacted panel VAR (IPVAR) models allow coefficients to vary as a deterministic function of observable country characteristics. The varying coefficient Bayesian panel VAR generalises this to the stochastic case. As an application of this framework, I examine if the impact of commodity price...

This paper provides an approach to estimation and inference for non-linear conditional mean panel data models, in the presence of cross-sectional dependence. We modify the common correlated effects (CCE) correction of Pesaran (2006) to filter out the interactive unobserved multifactor structure....

We study the interaction between solvency and funding costs at UK banks. We use the market-based leverage ratio as a proxy for market participants' perceptions of bank solvency. We investigate the impact that changes in this ratio have on banks' CDS premia, which are a proxy for their marginal...

We propose a Bayesian approach to dynamic panel estimation in the presence of cross-sectional dependence and dynamic heterogeneity which is suitable for inference in short panels, unlike alternative estimators. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that our estimator produces less bias, and a lower...

Using novel data and machine learning techniques, we develop an early warning system for bank distress. The main input variables come from confidential regulatory returns, and our measure of distress is derived from supervisory assessments of bank riskiness from 2006 through to 2012. We...