We investigate the role of macroeconomic shocks in driving equity price dynamics, focusing in particular on the United Kingdom as a small open economy. Using a vector error correction model estimated on 34 macroeconomic and financial time series, we show that shocks to demand, supply, monetary...

This paper describes a quantitative, data-driven method to assess vulnerabilities in a range of countries. We provide country-level vulnerability indices which can be used to gauge the level of fragility at any point in time. In particular, our results suggest that in the run-up to the Global...

We examine the role of macroeconomic fluctuations, asset market liquidity, and network structure in determining contagion and aggregate losses in a stylised financial system. Systemic instability is explored in a financial network comprising three distinct, but interconnected, sets of agents -...

We propose a structural framework for the development of system-wide financial stress tests with multiple interacting contagion, amplification channels and heterogeneous financial institutions. This framework conceptualises financial systems through the lens of five building blocks: financial...

In this paper, we analyse the network of exposures constructed by using the UK trade repository data for three different categories of contracts: interest rate, credit, and foreign exchange derivatives. We study how liquidity shocks related to variation margins propagate across the network and...

The requirement to post initial margin on derivatives transactions is a key feature of the post-crisis reforms of the OTC derivatives markets. Initial margin requirements are usually determined by risk-based models. These models typically require increased margin in stressed conditions: they are...

Collateral plays an important role in supporting a vast range of transactions that help ensure the efficient functioning of the financial system. But collateral markets also have the potential to exacerbate risks to financial stability, not least given that during periods of market stress demand...

We construct a heterogeneous agent-based model of the corporate bond market capturing the interaction of market maker behaviour, fund trading strategies, and cash allocation by investors in funds to study feedback effects and the impact of market changes. The model parameters are calibrated...

Default correlation is a key driver of credit risk. In the Basel regulatory framework it is measured by the asset value correlation parameter. Though past studies suggest that the parameter is over-calibrated for mortgages — generally the largest asset class on banks' balance sheets — they...

This paper applies algorithmic analysis to large amounts of financial market text-based data to assess how narratives and sentiment play a role in driving developments in the financial system. We find that changes in the emotional content in market narratives are highly correlated across data...