The interrelationship between financial constraints and firm activity is a hotly debated issue. The way firms cope with financial constraints is fundamental to the analysis of monetary transmission, of financial stability and of economic growth and development. The CBI Industrial Trends Survey...

We study solvency contagion risk in the UK banking system from 2008 to 2015. We develop a model that only accounts for losses transmitted after banks default, but also for losses due to the fact that creditors revalue their exposures when probabilities of default of their counterparties change....

'Zombie lending' occurs when a lender supports an otherwise insolvent borrower. Recent studies document that zombie lending to European firms has been widespread following the onset of the European sovereign debt crisis. This paper develops a quantitative model to study the impact of these...

Systemic risk in the banking sector is usually associated with long periods of economic downturn and very large social costs. On one hand, shocks coming from correlated exposures towards the real economy may induce correlation in banks’ default probabilities thereby increasing the likelihood...

This paper develops a model to analyse the optimal ex-ante capital and total loss absorbing capacity (TLAC) requirements, and the ex-post resolution policy of banks. Banks in our model are subject to two types of moral hazard: i) ex-ante, they have the incentive to shirk on project monitoring,...

We test whether a simple measure of corporate insolvency based on equity return volatility – and denoted as Distance to Insolvency (DI) – delivers better predictions of corporate default than the widely-used Expected Default Frequency (EDF) measure computed by Moody’s. We look at the...

This paper studies how non-Gaussian shocks affect risk premia in DSGE models approximated to second and third order. Based on an extension of the work by Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe to third order, we derive propositions for how rare disasters, stochastic volatility, and GARCH affect any risk premia...

This paper develops a DSGE model which explains variation in the nominal and real term structure along with inflation surveys and four macro variables in the UK economy. The model is estimated based on a third-order approximation to allow for time-varying term premia. We find a fall in nominal...

This paper develops a DSGE model in which banks use short-term deposits to provide firms with long-term credit. The demand for long-term credit arises because firms borrow in order to finance their capital stock which they only adjust at infrequent intervals. We show within a real business cycle...

Gertler and Karadi combined financial intermediation and credit policy in a DSGE framework. We estimate their model with UK data using Bayesian techniques. To validate the fit, we evaluate the model's empirical properties. Then we analyse the transmission mechanism of the shocks, set to produce...