This paper analyses how the risk-sharing capacity of the financial system varies over the business cycle, leading to procyclical fragility. We show how financial imperfections contribute to underinsurance by entrepreneurs, generating an externality that leads to the build-up of systematic risk...

We present a general equilibrium model of intermediation designed to capture some of the key features of the modern financial system. The model incorporates financial constraints and state-contingent contracts, and captures the spillovers associated with asset fire sales during periods of...

The prices of derivatives contracts can be used to estimate ‘risk-neutral' probability density functions that give an indication of the weight investors place on different future prices of their underlying assets, were they risk-neutral. In the likely case that investors are risk-averse, this...

This paper proposes a novel approach to assessing volatility contagion across equity markets. I decompose the variance risk premia of three major stock indices into: crash and non-crash risk components and analyse their cross-market correlations. I find that crash-risk premia exhibit higher...

I present a model of cryptocurrency price formation that endogenizes both the financial market for coins and the fee-based market for blockchain space. A cryptocurrency has two distinctive features: a price determined by the extent of its usage as money, and a blockchain structure that restricts...

The statistics that summarise probability density functions (pdfs) implied from option prices can be used to assess market expectations about future uncertainty, asymmetry and the probability of extreme movements in asset prices. A time-series analysis of these statistics for equity index and...

We model the joint risk-neutral distribution of the euro-sterling and the dollar-sterling exchange rates using option-implied marginal distributions that are connected via a copula function that satisfies the triangular no-arbitrage condition. We then derive a univariate distribution for a...

This study investigates the effects of housing futures trading on housing demand, house price volatility and housing bubbles in a theoretical framework. The baseline model is an application of the De Long, Shleifer, Summers and Waldmann (1990) model of noise traders to the housing market, when...

We derive a general joint affine term structure model of US government bond yields and the convenience yields on physical commodities. We apply this framework separately to oil and gold. Our results show clear links between bond and commodity markets, since bond factors play a significant role...

Collateral plays an important role in supporting a vast range of transactions that help ensure the efficient functioning of the financial system. But collateral markets also have the potential to exacerbate risks to financial stability, not least given that during periods of market stress demand...