The number of workers who hold more than one job (a.k.a. multiple jobholders) has increased recently in Canada. While this seems to echo the view that non-standard work arrangements are becoming pervasive, the increase has in fact been trivial compared with the long-run rise of multiple...

This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data. The model is then used to generate nowcasts, predictions of the recent past and...

Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) is a method of combining predictive distributions based on agent opinion analysis theory, which encompasses many common approaches to combining density forecasts. The key ingredient in BPS is a synthesis function. This is typically specified parametrically as...

The macroeconomy is a complicated dynamic system with significant uncertainties that make modelling difficult. Consequently, decision-makers consider multiple models that provide different predictions and policy recommendations and then synthesize that information into a policy decision. We use...

In this paper we use a Dynamic Factor model to retrieve vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. A stochastic simulation experiment is then used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events a®ecting a number of East Asian countries...

This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of the first round of quantitative easing (QE) by the Bank of England which started in March 2009. Although Bank Rate, the UK policy rate, was reduced to ½%, effectively its lower bound, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee felt that additional...