This paper contains a description of a small quarterly model for the Finnish economy model (formerly, the QMED model).In addition to the basic features of this macroeconomic model, we report results from some stochastic simulations which illustrate the model's properties.Thus, the role of...

This paper provides an answer to the question of how to improve the forecasting performance of a macro model to better account for economic developments and how to evaluate the forecasting uncertainty.The main tool in this assessment is stochastic simulation.Stochastic simulations in this paper...

Työssä kuvataan Suomen Neuvostoliiton-viennin kehitystä sekä tarkastellaan markkinaosuusanalyysin avulla Suomen ja Suomen kannalta merkittävimpien OECD maiden vientimenestystä Neuvostoliiton markkinoilla. Markkinaosuusanalyysissä vientimenestys samaistetaan markkinaosuuden muutokseen...

Tässä kirjoituksessa on tarkasteltu meillä paljon esillä ollutta kysymystä, missä määrin Suomen ja Saksan pitkien korkojen eroa 1990-luvulla voidaan selittää inflaation lisäksi maiden talouksien muidenkin perustekijöiden eroilla. Empiiristen tarkastelujen perusteella inflaation,...

Cyclically adjusted government budget balances have become increasingly popular as a means of analysing the fiscal situation and changes in policy that result from the intentional actions of the government.As the actual budget balances are affected both by cyclical factors ('automatic...

The paper investigates the relationship between relative price movements and changes in the aggregate price level using monthly data on Finland's Consumer Price Index and its components from the period covering the past eight and a half years.This was a period of very low inflation.The rate of...

The purpose of the paper is to revisit the demand for money specifiections by using U.S. quarterly data over the sample period 1951:1 - 1983:4. Utilizing the so-called threshold models suggested by Tong and Lim (1980) we first demonstrate the unsatisfactory performance of standard linear partial...

This paper reports some policy experiments carried out with the QMED model of the Bank of Finland. The main issue in these experiments is the role of expectations. Thus, we compare a static expectations version with two rational expectations versions of the model. These two versions differ in...

This paper examines the question of whether budget deficits raise nominal interest rates. The empirical analyses make use of cross-country data from 16 countries covering the period 1924 - 1938 .. Contrary to some recent studies (by e.g. Evans), it turns out that budget deficits affect nominal...

This paper examines the determination of interest rates in small open economies. We use the classical interest rate parity relationships as a starting point in developing a test procedure which allows us to evaluate the importance of various domestic shocks (in particular, monetary and fiscal...