This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus Economics survey and so do not assume rational...

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard bench marks in forecasting U.S. inflation once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation and its predictors) into several frequency bands and forecasting...

This paper examines euro area inflation dynamics by estimating open economy New Keynesian Phillips curves based on the assumption that all imports are intermediate goods. Instead of imposing rational expectations a priori, Consensus Economics survey data and OECD inflation forecasts are used to...

This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel composition. First, we compare two sub-groups of survey respondents...

This paper explores what can be lost when assuming price adjustment is a time - independent (memoryless) process.I derive a generalized NKPC in an optinizing model with the non- constant hazard function and trend inflation. Memory emerges in the resulting Phillips curve through the presence of...

The paper estimates the NAIRU from a Phillips curve relationship in the state-space framework. To identify the inflation-unemployment trade-off we account for a time-varying inflation trend to control for the part of inflation that is not affected by the cyclical component of unemployment. In...

We examine the global dimension of inflation in 24 OECD countries between 1980 and 2007 in a traditional Phillips curve framework. We decompose output gaps and changes in unit labor costs into common (or global) and idiosyncratic components using a factor analysis and introduce these components...

This paper is the first attempt to investigate the performance of different learning rules in fitting survey data of household and expert inflation expectations in five core European economies (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain). Overall it is found that constant gain learning...