This paper evaluates the challenges facing developing countries when there is uncertainty about the policy maker type. We consider a country characterized by volatile output, inelastic demand for fiscal outlays, high tax collection costs, and sovereign risk, where future output depends on the...

Our answer: not so well. We reach that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS -- III. POSSIBLE PITFALLS IN THE ESTIMATION OF THE EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS -- IV. EXPLAINING THE EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS -- V. TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE IN AN ESTIMATED DSGE MODEL --...