Central bank communication plays an important role in shaping market participants' expectations. This paper studies a simple nonlinear model of monetary policy in which agents have incomplete information about the economic environment. It shows that agents' learning and the dynamics of the...

In this paper I analyse the determinants of commercial banks' demand for reserves in the interbank market. I first document the pattern in the Eurosystem, where banks deviate from the required reserves balance at the start of the maintenance period only to meet the requirements closer to the...

The emergence of the New Consensus in monetary policy has been followed by a renewal of interest in central banks' operating procedures, and specifically in the role of open market operations. There is a general view that overnight interest rates are most effectively controlled by standing or...

We apply textual analysis to extract the tone (sentiment) from the introductory statements to the ECB’s press conferences regarding economic outlook. By combining this information with Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections, we are able to directly estimate the Governing Council’s...

We examine global dynamics under learning in New Keynesian models with price level targeting that is subject to the zero lower bound. The role of forward guidance is analyzed under transparency about the policy rule. Properties of transparent and non-transparent regimes are compared to each...

I estimate the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area by using a factor-augmented vector autoregression.I complement the standard monetary policy analysis using the short rate with models where the shadow rates by Kortela (2016) and Wu and Xia (2017) are used...

Standard New Keynesian models predict implausibly large and favorable responses of inflation and output to expansionary forward guidance on interest rates. We find that the introduction of permanent or recurring active fiscal policy dampens the response of output and inflation to forward...

We would like to propose a new framework for monetary policy analysis that encompasses, as a special case, the Neo-Wicksellian paradigm. A general form of an aggregate-demand equation reveals a role for liquidity, as well as less effective movements in future real rates with respect to current...

We analyze the economic performance of different monetary policy strategies, or rules, in a low interest rate environment, using simulations with a DSGE model which has been estimated for the euro area. We study how often the effective lower bound of interest rates (ELB) is likely to bind, and...

While many analyses of monetary policy consider only a target for a short-term nominal interest rate, other dimensions of policy have recently been of greater importance: changes in the supply of bank reserves, changes in the assets acquired by central banks, and changes in the interest rate...