This paper assesses Revolutionary and Napoleonic wartime economic policy. Suspension of gold convertibility in 1797 allowed the Bank of England to nurture British monetary orthodoxy. The Order of the Privy Council suspended gold payments on Bank of England notes and afforded simultaneous...

This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus Economics survey and so do not assume rational...

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard bench marks in forecasting U.S. inflation once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation and its predictors) into several frequency bands and forecasting...

This paper examines euro area inflation dynamics by estimating open economy New Keynesian Phillips curves based on the assumption that all imports are intermediate goods. Instead of imposing rational expectations a priori, Consensus Economics survey data and OECD inflation forecasts are used to...

Recent models of monetary policy have analysed the desirability of different optimal and ad hoc interest-rate rules under the restrictive assumption that forecasts of the private sector and central bank are homogeneous. In this paper, we study from a learning perspective the implications of...

This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel composition. First, we compare two sub-groups of survey respondents...

​This paper studies forecasts errors at the micro level using two alternative survey data sets. The main focus is on inflation and real GDP growth forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. For comparison, inflation forecasts in the US Survey of Professional Forecasters are also...

​This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We analyse possible impacts of changing panel composition on short and long term point forecasts and forecast uncertainties using approach, which is based on a set of...

This paper examines inflation dynamics in Europe. Econometric specification tests with pooled European data are used to compare the empirical performance of the New Classical, New Keynesian and Hybrid specifications of the Phillips curve. Instead of imposing any specific form of expectations...

Using the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, this paper investigates revisions of medium-term inflation expectations. We provide robust evidence that consumers adjust medium-term inflation views in response to changes in short-term inflation expectations and, to a lesser degree, to changes in...