Showing 1 - 10 of 14
We examine developments in national contributions to euro area M3 for a sample of nine euro area countries during 1999-2005. We investigate the co-movements of national contributions with euro area M3 and discuss possible reasons for divergencies in growth rates of national contributions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014224556
We apply textual analysis to extract the tone (sentiment) from the introductory statements to the ECB’s press conferences regarding economic outlook. By combining this information with Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections, we are able to directly estimate the Governing Council’s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251239
This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel composition. First, we compare two sub-groups of survey respondents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012969207
​This paper examines recent changes in the cyclicality of euro area inflation. We estimate time-varying parameters for the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve using three alternative proxies for the output gap. Our analysis, which is based on the state-space method with Kalman filtering...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013030976
We analyze the economic performance of different monetary policy strategies, or rules, in a low interest rate environment, using simulations with a DSGE model which has been estimated for the euro area. We study how often the effective lower bound of interest rates (ELB) is likely to bind, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234272
Using the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, this paper investigates revisions of medium-term inflation expectations. We provide robust evidence that consumers adjust medium-term inflation views in response to changes in short-term inflation expectations and, to a lesser degree, to changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014031111
This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus Economics survey and so do not assume rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013081651
The paper adds money supply and inflation expectations shocks to a well-known three-variable structural model that identifies oil price shocks through fundamentals affecting the oil market. Impulse responses show the significance of our two additional monetary shocks in impacting real oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014353807
We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230748
This paper considers the performance of average inflation targeting (AIT) policy in a New Keynesian model with adaptive learning agents. Our analysis raises concerns regarding robustness of AIT when agents have imperfect knowledge. In particular, the target steady state can be locally unstable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013232133