This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian … hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus … results indicate that in both economic areas the inflation dynamics have steadily become more forward-looking over time. We …

We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic … quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by … distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are …

​This paper examines recent changes in the cyclicality of euro area inflation. We estimate time-varying parameters for … become steeper since 2012. Thus, the current low level of inflation and persistently negative output gap increase the risk … that euro area inflation will stay below the monetary policy target for an extended period …

This paper examines euro area inflation dynamics by estimating open economy New Keynesian Phillips curves based on the … survey data and OECD inflation forecasts are used to proxy inflation expectations. The results suggest that, compared with a … closed economy New Keynesian Phillips curve, euro area inflation dynamics are better captured by the open economy …

This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of … that, because of heterogeneity across individual views, aggregated inflation expectations in the ECB SPF must be analysed …

​This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF … expectations would also be useful, especially in times of wide disagreement across forecasters and high levels of inflation …

. Macroeconomic outcomes are measured by the mean levels and the volatility of output (gaps), unemployment and inflation. We present … point inflation target appears to outperform a target range. Third, the (relative) performance of low-for-long (L4L … space is small, but if the space is larger these rules, while stabilizing inflation, may lead to more volatility in the real …

policy strategy announced in July 2021, the de facto inflation aim of the ECB may have been considerably below 2%. We also … find evidence that the loss function has been asymmetric, which would mean that the ECB has been more averse to inflation …