We present a two country DGE model and estimate it using Bayesian techniques and euro area and US quarterly data for 1977-2004. In analysing the current accounts we find that a lower US rate of time preference or a higher dollar risk premium could render the deficit sustainable, but that these...

The debate on whether COVID-19 vaccine patents are slowing down the pace of vaccination and the recovery from the crisis has brought the optimal design of pharmaceutical patent policy to the fore. In this paper we evaluate patent policy in the US pharmaceutical industry. We estimate the effect...

Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomics. The econometric learning approach, in line with the cognitive consistency principle, models agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating subjective forecasting models in real time. This approach provides a stability test for...

In his celebrated 1966 Econometrica article, Granger first hypothesized that there is a ‘typical’ spectral shape for an economic variable. This ‘typical’ shape implies decreasing levels of energy as frequency increases, which in turn implies an extremely long cycle in economic...

The aim of this paper is to determine whether it would be desirable from the perspective of macroeconomic balance for central banks to take account of nominal exchange rate movements when framing monetary policy. The theoretical framework is a small, open DSGE economy that is closed by a Taylor...

This study shows that an expectations-based optimal policy rule has desirable properties in a standard macroeconomic model incorporating a cost channel for monetary disturbances and inflation rate expectations that are partly backwardlooking. Specifically, optimal monetary policy under...

We embed an expectations-based optimal policy rule into a DSGE model for a small open economy that is augmented with trend extrapolation or chartism, which is a form of technical trading, in currency trade to examine the prerequisites for monetary policy. We find that a unique REE that is...

The difference between market risk and potential market risk is emphasized and a measure of the latter risk is proposed. Specifically, it is argued that the spectrum of smooth Lyapunov exponents can be utilized in what we call (λ, σ2)-analysis, which is a method to monitor the aforementioned...

This paper proposes and tests an explanation as to why rational managers seeking to maximize shareholder value can pursue value-decreasing mergers. It can be optimal to overpay for a target firm and decrease shareholder value if the loss is less than in an alternative where the merger is...