This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation … expectations affect both inflation and output,and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these … variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR model of inflation, inflation expectations and the output gap that allows for …

.Instead of imposing any specific form of expectations formation, direct measures, ie Consensus Economics survey data are used to … proxy economic agents' inflation expectations.According to the results, the New Classical Phillips curve has satisfactory … forward-looking, and inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expectations.Consequently, even allowing for …

model under rational expectations and revised (final) data. Alternatively, instead of imposing rational expectations … hypothesis we use realtime information, ie Consensus Economics survey data, to generate empirical proxies for expectations in the … expectations, the errors in measured expectations and real-time current output gaps are positively autocorrelated. We produce …

What is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning … rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump …-shaped response, and tend to be prominently characterized by oscillations not present under rational expectations. These fluctuations …

form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government …

uncertainty is closely related to the output growth uncertainty. In forming expectations, individual forecasters seem to behave …

. Revisions of expectations generally lead to larger forecast errors. Subjective uncertainty measures, which are available at the …

This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We … not cause systematic distortions to aggregated survey information. However, micro level analysis of expectations would …