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Indeterminacy in the small open economy Ramsey growth model

Weder, Mark - 1999

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001373290

A comparison of parametric, seminonparametric, adaptive, and nonparametric cointegration tests

Boswijk, H. Peter; Lucas, André; Taylor, Nick - 1999

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001365108

Scenarios in decision-making : an application to C0 2 emission reduction strategies in passenger transport

Rienstra, Sytze A.; Smokers, Richard T. M.; Vleugel, Jaap M. - 1995

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000926886

Model-based business cycle and financial cycle decomposition for Europe and the U.S.

Koopman, Siem Jan; Lit, Rutger; Lucas, André - 2016

We develop a multivariate unobserved components model to extract business cycle and financial cycle indicators from a panel of economic and financial time series of four large developed economies. Our model is flexible and allows for the inclusion of cycle components in different selections of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520505

Realized Wishart-GARCH : a score-driven multi-Asset volatility model

Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Janus, Paweł; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2016

We propose a novel multivariate GARCH model that incorporates realized measures for the variance matrix of returns. The key novelty is the joint formulation of a multivariate dynamic model for outer-products of returns, realized variances and realized covariances. The updating of the variance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520881

Analysis of environmental costs of mobility due to urban sprawl : a modelling study on Italian cities

Travisi, Chiara M.; Camagni, Roberto; Nijkamp, Peter - 2006

A sound empirical and quantitative analysis on the relationship between different patterns of urban expansion and the environmental or social costs of mobility is rare, and the few studies available provide at best a qualitative discussion of these issues. Some recent tentative studies on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349209

Modeling portfolio defaults using hidden Markov models with covariates

Banachewicz, Konrad; Vaart, Aad W. van der; Lucas, André - 2006

We extend the Hidden Markov Model for defaults of Crowder, Davis, and Giampieri (2005) to include covariates. The covariates enhance the prediction of transition probabilities from high to low default regimes. To estimate the model, we extend the EM estimating equations to account for the time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349709

The self-perception theory vs. a dynamic learning model

Swank, Otto H. - 2006

motivation may undermine intrinsic motivation. The self-perception (SP) theory developed by Bem (1972) explains this finding. The … crux of this theory is that people remember their past decisions and the extrinsic rewards they received, but they do not … recall their intrinsic motives. In this paper I show that the SP theory can be modeled as a variant of a conventional dynamic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349711

Periodic unobserved cycles in seasonal time series with an application to US unemployment

Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius; Hindrayanto, Irma - 2006

This paper discusses identification, specification, estimation and forecasting for a general class of periodic unobserved components time series models with stochastic trend, seasonal and cycle components. Convenient state space formulations are introduced for exact maximum likelihood...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011350384

Quantile forecasting for credit risk management using possibly mis-specified hidden Markov models

Banachewicz, Konrad; Lucas, André - 2007

Recent models for credit risk management make use of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). The HMMs are used to forecast quantiles of corporate default rates. Little research has been done on the quality of such forecasts if the underlying HMM is potentially mis-specified. In this paper, we focus on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372502