We measure the tone (sentiment) of the ECB's Governing Council regarding economic outlook at the time of each monetary policy meeting and use this information together with the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections to directly estimate the Governing Council's loss function. Our results...

We study the effect of collateral eligibility of corporate loans on the pricing of these loans by banks in Finland. Speciftcally, we investigate whether loans that are pledgeable as collateral for central bank borrowing have lower liquidity premia and thus lower interest rates. For...

We find that deep contractions have highly persistent scarring effects, depressing the level of GDP at least a decade hence. Drawing on a panel of 24 advanced and emerging economies from 1970 to the present, we show that these effects are nonlinear and asymmetric: there is no such persistence...

We examine a propagation mechanism that arises from households' long-term borrowing and show empirically that it has sizable real effects. The mechanism recognises that when there is long-term debt, an impulse to new borrowing generates a predictable hump-shaped path of future debt service. We...

Many consumers below the top of the distribution of a representative population by cognitive abilities barely react to monetary and fiscal policies that aim to stimulate consumption and borrowing, even when they are financially unconstrained and despite substantial debt capacity. Differences in...

We argue that the period of low inflation has come to an end based on six structural factors, which define the new inflationary environment: [...] How high will inflation rise? How long will the new inflationary environment last? How challenging is it for central banks to counteract these...

In this paper we aim to shed light on the global trend in rising corporate saving over the last three decades and to discuss the effects that the Covid-19 crisis might have on companies' saving behaviour. To do so, we analyse the transition of the corporate sector from traditionally being a net...

This paper studies fiscal policy in a New Keynesian DSGE model with endogenous technology growth in which scarring can occur endogenously through hysteresis effects in TFP. Both demand- and supply-driven recessions can weaken investment in R&D and technology adoption, thus depressing the...

In this paper we present Aino 3.0, the latest vintage of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used at the Bank of Finland for policy analysis. Aino 3.0 is a small-open economy DSGE model at the intersection of the recent literatures on so-called TANK (“Two-Agent New...