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Long-term debt propagation and real reversals

Drehmann, Mathias; Juselius, Mikael; Korinek, Anton - 2023

We examine a propagation mechanism that arises from households' long-term borrowing and show empirically that it has sizable real effects. The mechanism recognises that when there is long-term debt, an impulse to new borrowing generates a predictable hump-shaped path of future debt service. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014248726

The scarring effects of deep contractions

Aikman, David; Drehmann, Mathias; Juselius, Mikael; … - 2022

We find that deep contractions have highly persistent scarring effects, depressing the level of GDP at least a decade hence. Drawing on a panel of 24 advanced and emerging economies from 1970 to the present, we show that these effects are nonlinear and asymmetric: there is no such persistence...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013382160

Road pricing for heavy goods vehicles transport : assessing the economic impact in a disaggregated macroeconometric model

Kratena, Kurt; Puwein, Wilfried - 2002

The paper assesses the economic impact of a toll imposed on heavy-goods vehicles proportional to distance driven. The macroeconomic impact of the toll is estimated by using the disaggregated econometric model MULTIMAC of the Austrian economy. The assumption is that all toll revenues will be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011493625

Bullen, Bären, Krisen : fatale Folgen idealistischer Wirtschaftstheorien

Schulmeister, Stephan - 2019

In den Wirtschaftswissenschaften lassen sich zwei Theorietypen unterscheiden: Die "idealistische Ökonomie" geht von einem Idealzustand aus und untersucht die Bedingungen, unter denen dieser erreicht werden kann wie die Eigenschaften des "homo oeconomicus". Die "realistische Ökonomie" geht vom...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012134042

Fiscal implications of central bank balance sheet policies

Orphanides, Athanasios - 2016

Under ordinary circumstances, the fiscal implications of central bank policies tend to be seen as relatively minor and escape close scrutiny. The global financial crisis of 2008, however, demanded an extraordinary response by central banks which brought to light the immense power of central bank...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011750138

The economic and policy consequences of catastrophes

Pindyck, Robert S.; Wang, Neng - 2009 - This draft: September 15, 2009

What is the likelihood that the U.S. will experience a devastating catastrophic event over the next few decades – something that would substantially reduce the capital stock, GDP and wealth? What does the possibility of such an event imply for the behavior of economic variables such as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003889027

Would DSGE models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?

Breuss, Fritz - 2016

story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011561187