We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic … quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by … distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are …

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to … underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is … most pronounced at intermediate forecasting horizons. This suggests that inflation is projected to revert towards the …

inflation in order to stabilize the expectations of households, firms and innovators. Endogenous growth provides a self … debt-stabilizing inflation when current fiscal deficits are not backed by future fiscal surpluses. Because growth creates … unique stable equilibrium, provided that the policy permits r−g to fall with inflation. …

Using the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, this paper investigates how consumers revise medium-term inflation … medium-term inflation views in response to changes in short-term inflation expectations and, to a lesser degree, to changes … in perceptions of current inflation. We find that the strong adverse Covid-19 pandemic shock contributed to an increase …