Showing 1 - 6 of 6
This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery, focussing on lessons that can be learned. The projections repeatedly over-estimated growth, failing to anticipate the extent of the slowdown and later the weak pace of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374419
We propose a method for indentifying discretionary fiscal policy with real time data. The starting point is the observation that automatic stabilizers should depend on true GDP, while discretionary fiscal policy depends on the information that policy makers have in real time. We approximate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991133
How does private consumption react to an exogenous increase in government expenditure? Standard structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) usually report a positive GDP as well as consumption response, while event studies report a negative consumption response. We investigate in a SVAR whether...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991142
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991162
We investigate the effect of fiscal institutions such as the strength of the finance minister in the budget process and deficits on interest spreads contained in bond yields of the countries now belonging to the Eurozone. Deficits significantly increase risk premia measured by relative swap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991168
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991343