Recent empirical literature shows that key macro variables such as GDP and productivity display long memory dynamics. For DSGE models, we propose a ‘Generalized' Kalman Filter to deal effectively with this problem: our method connects to and innovates upon data-filtering techniques already...

We investigate the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and banks' balance sheets by referring to a modified version of the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model (BIQM), regularly used for forecasting and policy analysis. In particular, we examine how regulatory bank capital and private sector...

We build a model to simulate how the euro-area market-based financial system may function under stressed conditions, such as the COVID-19 turmoil. The core of the model is a set of representative agents reflecting key economic sectors, which interact in asset, funding and derivatives markets and...

We use a general equilibrium model to show that a decrease in workers’ bargaining power amplifies the relative contribution to the output gap of adjustments along the extensive margin of labour utilization. This mechanism reduces the cyclical movements of marginal cost (and inflation) relative...

In this paper we propose an on-line Bayesian filtering and smoothing method for time series models with heavy-tailed alpha-stable noise, with a particular focus on TVAR models. alpha-stable processes have been shown in the past to be a good model for many naturally occurring noise sources. We...

Long memory in conditional variance is one of the empirical features of most financial time series. One class of models that was suggested to capture this behavior refers to the so-called Fractionally Integrated GARCH processes (Baillie, Bollerslev and Mikkelsen 1996) in which the ideas of...

The alpha-stable family of distributions constitutes a generalization of the Gaussian distribution, allowing for asymmetry and thicker tails. Its practical usefulness is coupled with a marked theoretical appeal, given that it stems from a generalized version of the central limit theorem in which...

The alpha-stable family of distributions constitutes a generalization of the Gaussian distribution, allowing for asymmetry and thicker tails. Its practical usefulness is coupled with a marked theoretical appeal, as it stems from a generalized version of the central limit theorem in which the...

Volatility forecasting is one of the main issues in the financial econometrics literature. Volatility measures may be derived from statistical models for conditional variance, or from option prices. In recent times, indices have been suggested which summarize the implied volatility of widely...