The two recessions that have hit Italy since the end of 2008 have raised the share of non-performing loans to businesses in banks' portfolios substantially. In this paper we evaluate to what extent the deterioration of credit quality was due not only to the decline in firms' sales during the...

This paper provides an assessment of the costs of complying with Basel III for the Italian economy. The main findings are the following. For each percentage point increase in the capital ratio implemented over an eight-year horizon, the level of GDP would decline by 0.00-0.33% (0.03-0.39% if...

We assess the long-term economic impact of the new regulatory standards (the Basel III reform), answering the following questions. (1) What is the impact of the reform on long-term economic performance? (2) What is the impact of the reform on economic fluctuations? (3) What is the impact of the...

We assess the effects of the sovereign debt crisis on Italian banks' activity using aggregate data on funding and loan rates, lending quantities and income statements for the period 1991-2011. We augment standard reduced-form equations for the variables of interest with the spread on 10-year...

This paper examines the history and the determinants of bank profits in Italy from 2005-15. We first identify a number of key stylized facts by comparing the income statement of Italian lenders with that of banks in other European countries. The comparison suggests that the profitability gap of...

Shadow banking is the creation or transfer – by banks and non-bank intermediaries – of bank-like risks outside the banking system. In Italy the shadow banking system is fully regulated, mostly following the principle of same business-same rules or ‘bank-equivalent regulation'. After an...

More than three years since the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area the banking systems of several countries remain exposed to the vagaries of government bond markets. The paper analyzes the different channels through which sovereign risk affects banking risk (and vice versa),...

Italian Abstract: Il rischio sistemico, che le politiche macroprudenziali hanno l'obiettivo di minimizzare, è in pratica assai difficile da identificare ex ante. La ricerca di indicatori che potrebbero consentire di attivare le politiche macroprudenziali con un anticipo sufficiente a evitare o...

We provide an analytical framework for assessing financial stability risks arising from the real estate sector in Italy. This framework consists of two blocks: three complementary early warning models (EWMs) and a broad set of indicators related to the real estate market, to credit and to...

We identify two categories of potentially ‘bad investors’ in TLAC-eligible bonds for the purpose of bail-in, i.e. households and hedge funds. The exposure of households may create political economy problems for policy makers when they have to decide about bail-in, while holdings by hedge...