The world recession triggered by the financial crisis has impacted with extraordinary violence on economic activity in Italy. What has been the contribution of the various channels through which the crisis was transmitted to the Italian economy? What have been the effects stemming from the...

This paper presents the results of a counterfactual exercise that aims at quantifying the contribution to the evolution of bad debts made by the two recessions that have hit the Italian economy since 2008. The counterfactual simulations are performed using the Bank of Italy's Quarterly Model...

Assessing underlying inflation developments is crucial for a correct calibration of the monetary policy stance. To monitor the adjustment in the path of euro area inflation towards the ECB's definition of price stability, we select a number of indicators of price dynamics in the area. We then...

We assess the impact on the Italian economy of the main unconventional monetary policies adopted by the ECB in 2011-2012 (SMP, 3-year LTROs and OMTs) by following a two-step approach. We evaluate their effects on money market interest rates, government bond yields and credit availability and...

This paper examines the causes of the exceptionally marked fall in non-construction investment in Italy since 2007. Non-financial private services were the main driver of the decline in the aggregate investment rate, but all sectors weighed in negatively; the reallocation of value added away...

A prolonged period of low inflation, particularly in a situation of monetary policy rates near the zero lower bound, can heighten the risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring from the central bank objective. The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of a sequence of deflationary...

Italian Abstract: Il lavoro analizza l’impatto macroeconomico della crisi del debito sovrano, mediante un’analisi controfattuale realizzata con il modello econometrico della Banca d’Italia. Rispetto a uno scenario di “assenza di crisi” si valuta che: (i) la perdita di PIL ammonterebbe...