The Covid-19 epidemic affected the ability of traditional forecasting models to produce reliable scenarios for the evolution of economic activity. We combine macroeconomic variables with epidemiological indicators to account for the Covid-19 shock and predict the short-term evolution of Italian...

This study analyzes high-frequency data on credit cards to identify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Italian consumer transactions. Using an event study approach, it finds that during the national lockdown total transactions fell by over 50%. The decline was particularly severe in...