The analysis of international investment position and balance of payments statistics suggests that foreign assets held abroad are greatly underestimated. This paper has three main goals. First, it examines the role played by tax havens in tax evasion. Second, it estimates unreported capital to...

The decline in VAT revenue during the Covid-19 recession has been unexpectedly lower than the drop in household consumption. In the first half of 2021, VAT bounced back to pre-crisis levels even though aggregate consumption had still not recovered. According to our analysis, this result...

The spread of the pandemic and the consequent adoption of lockdown measures to prevent infections had severe consequences for business activity and employment. By using data from the Italian Labour Force Survey, this paper simulates the effect of the COVID-19 crisis on the dynamics and...

We analyse the impact of the marked and unexpected increase in inflation recorded since the second half of 2021 on Italian households’ purchasing power. Exploiting microsimulation tools, we are able to quantify the extent to which government measures supporting households’ incomes and...

We build a microsimulation model to monitor the financial vulnerability of Italian households. Starting from household-level data from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth and matching them with macroeconomic forecasts on debt and income, we project the future path of households'...

This work examines the benefits and risks of using available classes of uncertainty indexes for policy purposes, clustered in three broad categories: survey-based, model-based, and news-based. In both policy discussions and the academic literature news-based indexes are the ones that have...