We assess the impact of oil shocks on euro-area macroeconomic variables by estimating a new-Keynesian small open economy model with Bayesian methods. Oil price is determined according to supply and demand conditions in the world oil market. We find that the impact of an increase in the price of...

This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model.It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed whenthe ratio of volatilities is time-varying....

Based on SVAR models identified by sign restrictions, we estimate the macroeconomic effects of financial and uncertainty shocks in the euro area and the US, paying particular attention to their effects on prices. While our results confirm that such disturbances are important drivers of output...

We estimate a DSGE model for Brazil that includes both anticipated and unanticipated fiscal shocks. The model contains a relatively detailed public sector, which allows us to investigate the effects of anticipation for a much wider array of fiscal instruments than previously considered in the...

This paper formalizes one mechanism through which diversification in the production of research & development across firms located in a city dampens volatility in the local labor market, improves the incentives to perform research & development and smooths the aggregate business cycle...

Does the current account improve or deteriorate following a monetary policy expansion? We examine this issue theoretically and empirically. We show that a standard open economy DSGE model predicts that the current account response to a monetary policy shock depends on the degree of economic...

We study equilibrium determination in an environment where two kinds of agents have different information sets: The fully informed agents know the structure of the model and observe histories of all exogenous and endogenous variables. The less informed agents observe only a strict subset of the...

A structural Bayesian vector autoregression model predicts that - when accompanied by a decline in consumer confidence - a one-percent decrease in house prices is associated with a contraction of economic activity by 0.2 to 1.2 percent after one year. Results point to important second-round...

We analyze an estimated stochastic general equilibrium model that replicates key macroeconomic and financial stylized facts during the Great Moderation of 1983-2007. Our model predicts a sizeable and volatile nominal term premium - comparable to recent reduced-form empirical estimates - with...