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The Power of Text-based Indicators in Forecasting the Italian Economic Activity

Aprigliano, Valentina; Emiliozzi, Simone; Guaitoli, Gabriele - 2021

Can we use newspaper articles to forecast economic activity? Our answer is yes and, to this end, we propose a brand new economic dictionary in Italian with valence shifters, and we apply it to a corpus of about two million articles from four popular newspapers. We produce a set of high-frequency...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226486

On Modeling Household Labor Supply with Taxation

Bargain, Olivier - 2005

households optimizing statically, is strongly rejected when tested against a general model with price- and income … of responses to a tax reform. In particular, large differences appear between standard models and the general model which … consistent with economic theory. The general model we suggest may provide future research with an interesting setting to test …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262185

Employer Learning and Schooling-Related Statistical Discrimination in Britain

Galindo-Rueda, Fernando - 2003

This paper develops and tests a new model of asymmetric information in the labour market involving employer learning. In the model, I provide theoretical conditions for the identification – based on the experience and tenure profiles of estimated returns to ability and education – of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262759

Making Work Pay': in a rationed labour market

Bargain, Olivier; Caliendo, Marco; Haan, Peter; Orsini, … - 2006

We assess the labour supply effects of two 'making work pay' reforms in Germany. We provide evidence in favour of policies that distinguish between low effort and low productivity by targeting individuals with low wages rather than individuals with low earnings. In assessing the policies we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267602

Turning 18: What a difference application of adult criminal law makes

Entorf, Horst - 2011

This paper contributes to the literature on specific deterrence by addressing the issue of selecting adolescents into adult and juvenile law systems. In Germany, different from the U.S. and most other countries, turning a critical cutoff age does not cause a sharp discontinuity from juvenile to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274674

Misspecification testing in a class of conditional distributional models

Rothe, Christoph; Wied, Dominik - 2012

We propose a specification test for a wide range of parametric models for the conditional distribution function of an outcome variable given a vector of covariates. The test is based on the Cramer-von Mises distance between an unrestricted estimate of the joint distribution function of the data,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282420

Modelling Italian Potential Output and the Output Gap

Bassanetti, Antonio - 2011

The aim of the paper is to estimate a reliable quarterly time-series of potential output for the Italian economy, exploiting four alternative approaches: a Bayesian unobserved component method, a univariate time-varying autoregressive model, a production function approach and a structural VAR....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128341

A Liquidity Risk Early Warning Indicator for Italian Banks : A Machine Learning Approach

Nobili, Stefano; Drudi, Maria Ludovica - 2021

The paper develops an early warning system to identify banks that could face liquidity crises. To obtain a robust system for measuring banks’ liquidity vulnerabilities, we compare the predictive performance of three models – logistic LASSO, random forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting – and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218623

Investment Forecasting with Business Survey Data

D'Aurizio, Leandro - 2012

Business investment is a very important variable for short- and medium-term economic analysis, but it is volatile and difficult to predict. Qualitative business survey data are widely used to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110289

Real wages and the business cycles in Germany

Marczak, Martyna; Beissinger, Thomas - 2010

This paper establishes stylized facts about the cyclicality of real consumer wages and real producer wages in Germany. As detrending methods we apply the deterministic trend model, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the Baxter-King filter and the structural time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274586