We consider a standard result of customer market theory: if firms have stable customer relations and face financial frictions, they may keep prices relatively high in times of low demand and vice versa. Indeed, during recessions, when firms have low cash flow and greater difficulty in raising...

In this paper I analyse whether non-employment periods at the initial stages of an individual’s career may increase workers’ propensity to experience non-employment also in subsequent years. The study is based on data on young individuals in Italy. The paper uses an instrumental variables...

Monetary policy in the United States has often followed a gradual approach by changing policy rates through multiple small adjustments rather than all-at-once hikes or cuts. This conduct could provide a signal about the extent of the intended policy change. We quantify the state-dependent...

This paper studies the effect of competitive pressures on inflation dynamics. To this end it derives and estimates a New Keynesian Phillips curve in a model with endogenous firm entry. The number of active firms is inversely related to their market power. By taking into account the number of...

The applied literature on adaptive learning has mostly focused on small, linear models, with homogenous expectations. In non-linear models heterogeneous expectations prevail and the process through which agents select (and change) a forecasting model becomes a necessary ingredient of the...

This paper analyzes the relationship between commodity prices and consumer food prices in the euro area and in its largest economies (Germany, France and Italy) and tests whether the latter respond asymmetrically to shocks to the former. The issue is of particular interest for those monetary...

Empirical studies show that successful disinflations entail a period of output contraction. Using a medium-scale New Keynesian model, we compare the effects of disinflations of different speed and timing, implemented through either a money supply or an interest rate rule. In terms of...

In the past decade changes in oil prices have played a significant role in shaping inflation dynamics in the US and in the euro area, largely through their direct effect on fuels prices, reviving the controversy over whether the prices of petroleum products respond more promptly to positive than...

The paper uses dynamic quantile regressions to estimate and forecast the conditional distribution of euro-area inflation. As in a Phillips curve relationship we assume that inflation quantiles depend on past inflation, the output gap, and other determinants, namely oil prices and the exchange...