We evaluate the macroeconomic stabilization properties, with particular reference to the exchange rate pass-through, of price level targeting (PLT), average inflation targeting (AIT) and inflation targeting (IT) strategies when the effective lower bound on the monetary policy rate can be...

When the economy is subject to recurrent structural shifts, the monetary authority cannot credibly commit to a systematic approach to policy, since consistency between promises and actions is not easily verifiable; moreover, since agents have incomplete knowledge of the surrounding environment,...

This paper investigates whether Italian households' actual expenditure and willingness to buy durables (cars) are related to their inflation expectations. In a high-inflation regime, as in the early 1990s, consumers with higher inflation expectations tend to have higher current than future...

In New Keynesian models favourable cost-push shocks lower inflation and increase output. Yet, when the central bank's inflation target is not perfectly observed these shocks turn contractionary as agents erroneously perceive a temporary reduction in the target. This effect is amplified when...

Should monetary policy be more aggressive or more cautious when facing uncertainty on the relationship between macroeconomic variables? This paper's answer is: “it depends” on the degree of persistence of the shocks that hit the economy. The paper studies optimal monetary policy in a basic...

Inflation in the euro area has been falling steadily since early 2013 and at the end of 2014 turned negative. Part of the decline has been due to oil prices, but the weakness of aggregate demand has also played a significant role. This paper uses a VAR model to quantify the contribution of oil...

We assess the short- and medium-term macroeconomic effects of competition-friendly reforms in the service sector when the monetary policy rate is stuck at the zero lower bound (ZLB) in a monetary union. We calibrate a large-scale multi-country multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model to...

Empirical studies of the shoe-leather costs of inflation are typically computed using M1 as a measure of money. Yet, official data on M1 includes all currency issued, regardless of the country of residence of the holder. Using adjusted monetary data, we show that the failure to control for...

This paper assesses the macroeconomic consequences of a prolonged period of low and falling inflation when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on short-term nominal interest rates, the private sector is indebted in nominal terms (debt deflation mechanism) and nominal...

This paper evaluates the direct and indirect effects of the sovereign debt crisis on Italy's potential output. The direct effects are captured by the increase in the interest rate paid by Italian borrowers in the second half of 2011, the indirect effects by the policy responses to the crisis...