The strong and prolonged deviation of money growth from its reference value since 2001 has caused concern among policy-makers about the upside risks to price stability from monetary developments. In this paper we provide evidence that these risks might be smaller than previously assumed. We...

Average rates in the decentralized unsecured market for euro funds, like the EONIA for the overnight maturity, are fundamental indicators of the smooth transmission of the signal rate by the central bank. Public information plays an important role in this context, as key interest rates are set...

The paper analyzes the short-run impact of periods of strong monetary growth on inflation dynamics for 15 industrialized economies. We find that when robust money growth is accompanied by large increases in stock and house prices and loose credit conditions, the probability of recording an...

This paper studies over-the-counter (OTC) trading in the unsecured interbank market for euro funds. The goal of our analysis is to identify the determinants of the probability of trading, the bilateral rate and the quantity exchanged during the European sovereign debt crisis. We show how the...

We evaluate the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into euro area (EA) inflation by estimating an open economy New Keynesian model with Bayesian methods. In the model ERPT is incomplete because of local currency pricing and distribution services, with the latter allowing to distinguish between...

Money market microstructure is fundamental to studying bank behaviour, to evaluating monetary policy and to assessing the financial stability of the system. Given the lack of granular data on interbank loans, Furfine (1999) proposed an algorithm to estimate the microstructure using data from the...

We propose a method based on control charts to identify in real-time sudden deposits' outflows through payment systems. The performance of the methodology is assessed with both Monte Carlo simulations and real transaction-level TARGET2 data for a large sample of Italian banks. We identify a set...

What types of monetary and fiscal policy rules produce self-fulfilling deflationary paths that are monotonic and empirically relevant? This paper presents simple theoretical conditions that guarantee the existence of these paths in a general equilibrium model with sticky prices. These sufficient...

Estimates of the welfare costs of inflation based on Bailey's (1956) methodology are typically computed on the basis of aggregate money demand models. Yet, the behavior of money demand is likely to vary across sectors. As a result, the impact on welfare of changes in the inflation regime may...

We contribute to the debate on how to assess the size of the underground or shadow economy with a reinterpretation of the traditional Currency Demand Approach (CDA) à la Tanzi. We introduce three main innovations. First, we take as dependent variable in the money demand equation a direct...