The global financial crisis has reaffirmed the importance of financial factors for macroeconomic fluctuations. Recent work has shown how the conventional pre-crisis prescription that monetary policy should pay no attention to financial variables over and above their effects on inflation may no...

The Bank of Italy quarterly econometric model (BIQM) is a large-scale ‘semi structural' macro-econometric model. It tries to strike the right balance between theoretical rigour and statistical fit to the data. This paper provides an update of the features and the properties of the model,...

This paper quantifies the macroeconomic effects of three major structural reforms (i.e., service sector liberalizations, incentives to innovation and civil justice reforms) undertaken in Italy in the last decade. We employ a novel approach that estimates the impact of each reform on total factor...

The prominent role assigned to money by the ECB has been the subject of an intense debate because of the declining predictive power of the monetary aggregate M3 for inflation in recent years. This paper reassesses the information content of monetary analysis for future inflation using dynamic...

We propose a method based on control charts to identify in real-time sudden deposits' outflows through payment systems. The performance of the methodology is assessed with both Monte Carlo simulations and real transaction-level TARGET2 data for a large sample of Italian banks. We identify a set...

A standard model-based trend-cycle decomposition of Italian GDP yields a likelihood function that is relatively flat and has two local maxima. A Bayesian estimation of the model identifies output gap and trend components that match the features of the Italian business cycle well. In a bivariate...

This paper studies over-the-counter (OTC) trading in the unsecured interbank market for euro funds. The goal of our analysis is to identify the determinants of the probability of trading, the bilateral rate and the quantity exchanged during the European sovereign debt crisis. We show how the...

This paper provides evidence that, by restoring market functioning, central banks' pandemic-related asset purchase programmes lowered payoff complementarities among investors in corporate bond funds, reinforcing asset managers' willingness to hold riskier assets to increase funds' returns....

Are capital controls and macroprudential measures desirable in an emerging economy? How do these instruments interact with monetary policy? I address these questions in a DSGE model for an emerging economy whose banks are indebted in foreign currency. The model is augmented with financial...

This paper evaluates the international macroeconomic spillovers from the Eurosystem’s expanded Asset Purchase Programme (APP) under alternative assumptions as regards (i) the unwinding of the asset positions accumulated under the APP and (ii) the normalization of the US monetary policy stance....