It has increasingly become standard practice to supplement point macroeconomic forecasts with an appraisal of the degree of uncertainty and the prevailing direction of risks. Several alternative approaches have been proposed in the literature to compute the probability distribution of...

This paper shows how credit quality transition matrices of loans to Italian firms changed during a cyclical downturn (2008-09), compared with a previous time of growth (2006-07). Once transition matrices were linked to interest rates, banks appear to have been remarkably able at calibrating...

Using a dataset that combines bank organizational variables with information on firms' credit demand and balance-sheet indicators, we investigate the impact of how bank lending was organized on credit dynamics during the 2008-09 financial crisis. Our main findings suggest that the organization...

Social capital is a key factor affecting the functioning of financial markets (Guiso, Sapienza and Zingales, 2004). However, the estimation of the effect of social capital on credit markets is notoriously difficult. In this paper we exploit the recent Lehman Brothers crisis and a rich dataset to...

We use a rich dataset on bank loans to Italian firms matched to information on firms’ and banks’ characteristics, and exploit the implementation of Basel III reforms in Italy to investigate the impact of higher risk-based capital requirements on credit supply. While we do not address the...

Italy's economic and banking systems have been under stress in the wake of the global financial crisis and the euro crisis. Our results suggest that firms in business groups have been more likely to survive in this challenging environment than unaffiliated firms. Better performance stems from...

To contribute to the understanding of investment funds' (IFs) behaviour, the paper exploits the exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and analyses more than 12 million security sales and purchases during the first four months of 2020 by over 20,000 IFs from more than 40 national jurisdictions...

Using proprietary monthly holdings data from Morningstar, we show that Environmental, Social, and Governance funds’ trading during the Covid-19 market crash was consistent with the choices of their clientele. Thus, ESG funds helped to stabilize the market for ESG stocks, but interestingly...