This paper analyses the relationship between international fragmentation of production, trade openness and global export performance in the European Union from 2000 to 2009. As most trade models featuring international production sharing show, the higher the level of fragmentation and related...

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic effects on the UK and the euro area of an increase in trade tariffs associated with Brexit, by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium model of the UK, the euro area, and the rest of the world (RW). Our results are as follows: first, the imposition of...

This work analyses the effect of the global sourcing of intermediate goods on productivity growth. To identify the impact of global sourcing, we employ the methodology proposed in a different context by Rajan and Zingales (1998). In particular we interact the length and the width of sectoral...

This paper shows that vertical specialisation can increase the elasticity of trade to income, hence explaining dramatic events such as the great trade collapse. We argue that a change in the extent of vertical specialisation affects the elasticity of trade to income, while a mere change in...

This paper presents a model of non-cooperative network formation in which the marginal benefit of new links eventually decreases. Agents link with each other to gain information and update their links according to better-reply dynamics. In the long run the system settles to a unique network...

We document how the impact of monetary surprises in the euro area and the US on financial markets has changed since 1999. We use a definition of monetary policy surprises that singles out movements in the long end of the yield curve, rather than those that change nearby futures on the central...

The boom in the production of shale oil in the United States has triggered a structural transformation of the oil market. We show, both theoretically and empirically, that this process has significant consequences for oil risk premium. We construct a model based on shale producers interacting...

Using more than a decade of firm-level data on U.S. oil producers' hedging portfolios, we document for the first time a strong positive link between net worth and hedging in the oil producing sector. We exploit as quasi-natural experiments two similarly dramatic oil price slumps, in 2008 and in...

We analyze the impact of US macroeconomic surprises and forecaster heterogeneity on the USD/EUR exchange rate and US and German long-term interest rates from 1999 to 2014. We show how a direct proxy of macroeconomic disagreement, given by the heterogeneity of beliefs among forecasters regarding...

This paper presents ideas and methods underlying the construction of an indicator that tracks the euro area GDP growth, but, unlike GDP growth, (i) is updated monthly and almost in real time; (ii) is free from short-run dynamics. Removal of short-run dynamics from a time series, to isolate the...