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Monetary policy in the United States has often followed a gradual approach by changing policy rates through multiple small adjustments rather than all-at-once hikes or cuts. This conduct could provide a signal about the extent of the intended policy change. We quantify the state-dependent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832731
uncertainty shock. Price stickiness greatly amplifies the reaction of the economy. Simulations show that monetary policy can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012980511
This paper highlights the role of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty in predicting US recessions. In-sample forecasts using probit models indicate that these two variables are the best predictors of recessions at short horizons. Macroeconomic uncertainty has the highest predictive power up...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014092438
We reinvestigate the question of whether corporate investment during the financial crisis depended to a significant extent, and differently than in the pre-crisis period, on firms' short-term liquidity and indebtedness. Using data on listed firms in the euro area and the United Kingdom, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012944006
of a financial shock on the labor market, focusing on the US. Our results indicate that a tightening of financial … during periods of expansion. The source of this asymmetry is the time-varying standard deviation of the identified shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012915129
This paper formalizes one mechanism through which diversification in the production of research & development across firms located in a city dampens volatility in the local labor market, improves the incentives to perform research & development and smooths the aggregate business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014217109
This paper investigates how income shocks shape consumption dynamics over the business cycle. First, we break new ground and create a unique panel dataset of transitory and permanent income shocks by combining household-level income expectations with the findings of the DNB Household Survey...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013305659
(deterioration risk). Low fundamental risk of assets guarantees benevolent funding conditions and banks are able to expand their … regulatory regime that disregards the equilibrium effect of asset prices on incentives performs poorly as low fundamental risk … may induce high deterioration risk. Overall, the model suggests a theoretical foundation for the countercyclical capital …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086475
We use monthly data on individual loans from the Italian Credit Register over the period from 1997 to 2019 and show that bank credit expansions in the non-financial private sector are mostly explained by variations in the extensive margin calculated either in credit flows or headcount of new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832748
Following the debate on the relationship between business and financial cycle rekindled in the last decade since the global financial crisis, we assess the ability of some financial indicators to track the Italian business cycle. We mostly use credit variables to detect the turning points and to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864904