In this paper, we analyze whether central bank communication can be an additional tool to provide guidance on monetary policy, drive private agents’ inflation expectations and financial asset prices in the main countries of Central and Eastern Europe. By applying natural language processing...

The paper compares the main monetary policy strategies to assess which one is the best performing in terms of both minimising the volatility of inflation and the output-gap and reducing the probability of falling into a liquidity trap. The strategies differ in the degree of history dependence...

We analyse a simplified New-Keynesian model with an unobserved aggregate cost-push shock in which firms and the central bank have different information about the shock. We consider a linear policy rule where a pure inflation targeting central bank decides how much to react to the shock given its...

In New Keynesian models favourable cost-push shocks lower inflation and increase output. Yet, when the central bank's inflation target is not perfectly observed these shocks turn contractionary as agents erroneously perceive a temporary reduction in the target. This effect is amplified when...

In this paper we propose a new indicator of central bank's verbal guidance, which measures communications about the future based on the frequency of future verbs in monetary policy statements. We consider the press conferences of the European Central Bank as a test case. First, we analyze the...

We estimate the response of domestic inflation to a US interest rate shock in a sample of 27 emerging economies, using local projection methods. Our results point out that the sign of the inflation response crucially depends on the monetary policy framework: after a US monetary policy...

Using micro price data underlying the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in France, Germany and Italy, we estimate relative price trends over the product life cycle and show that minimizing price and mark-up distortions in the presence of these trends requires targeting a significantly positive...

We use a dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area to study banks' possible responses to the stricter capital requirements called for by the Basel III reform package. We show that the effects on output depend, inter alia, on the strategy banks adopt in response to the reform, and that...

This paper builds a dynamic model of the information flow between partially informed financial institutions and a public agency. The financial institutions decide how to allocate their portfolio between a risk-free technology with a known payoff and a risky technology whose payoff is unknown....

We use a dynamic general equilibrium model featuring a banking sector to assess the interaction between macroprudential policy and monetary policy. We find that in “normal” times (when the economic cycle is driven by supply shocks) macroprudential policy generates only modest benefits for...