Potential output is the largest amount of products that can be produced by fully utilizing available labor and capital stock; the output gap is defined as the discrepancy between actual and potential output. If data on production factors contain measurement errors, total factor productivity...

This paper examines survey expectations of the yen/dollar exchange rate. We fit simple mechanisms on the survey expectations and test their rationality. We present the puzzling fact that in the 1990's the short-horizon expectations have lost their destabilizing property observed in the late...

The financial activity index (FAIX) introduced in this paper is a selection of financial indicators that borrow from prior literature on early bubble warnings and are particularly adept at explaining the bubble occurred in Japan starting in the 1980s. Our index comprises 10 financial indicators...

This paper introduces the Financial Macro-econometric Model (FMM) being developed by the Bank of Japan. The FMM is a medium-sized structural model comprising two sectors: a financial sector and a macroeconomic sector. It permits the quantitative analysis of various phenomena created by the...

This paper examines the distinctive behavior of long-term interest rates observed after the Bank of Japan's introduction of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, by focusing on changes in traders' confidence and herding behavior. When participants in bond markets lose confidence in their...

This paper shows that changes in international competitiveness played a significant role in creating the deflationary pressure in Japan from 1980 to 2001. Applying Blanchard and Quah's (1989) SVAR technique to Dornbusch, Fischer, and Samuelson's (1977) classical comparative advantage model, we...

In this paper, we propose a new method for identifying monetary policy shocks under the non-negativity constraint on nominal short-term interest rates and use it to estimate the impact of monetary policy on the Japanese economy since the bursting of the asset bubble. Our method boasts three...

This paper investigates the characteristics of households' inflation expectations using the micro-data of the Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior conducted by the Bank of Japan. The results of the Kahn test indicate the existence of strong downward rigidity in households'...

The development of an international division of labor across the Asia-Pacific basin was not only foundation for achieving the "East Asian Miracle," but also proved during the "Asian Currency Crisis" to be a possible trigger for an international chain reaction of economic bankruptcy. The purpose...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the leverage ratio requirement as currently considered by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. The key concept in this paper is the asset quality index, which is obtained by dividing the risk-based...