In this paper, we estimate two small, forward-looking, macroeconomic models for the US and Germany and we compare the implied optimal monetary policy rules. Both models have a standard structure: an I-S curve, a Phillips curve, a short term interest-rate rule and a long term interest rate...

In this paper, we, seek to characterize the dynamic effects of permanent technology shocks and the way in which US monetary authorities reacted to these shocks over the sample 1955(1)--2002(4). To do so, we develop an augmented sticky price-sticky wage model of the business cycle, which is...

In this paper, we ask whether a small structural model with sticky prices and wages, embedding various modeling devices designed to increase the degree of strategic complementarity between price-setters, can fit postwar US data. To answer this question, we resort to a two-step empirical...

This article looks at the factors explaining the level of US and European long-term interest rates between 1986 and 2005. We begin by selecting the structural determinants of long-term interest rates, dealing with the US and European cases separately. However, a univariate framework cannot...

I study whether US Tax Policies affected economic volatility during the post World War II period. I employ a Real Business Cycle model with distorting taxation on household income and tax rules, and assume that taxes respond to the cyclical conditions of the economy. I estimate the deep...

This paper presents information on wage bargaining institutions, collected using a standardised questionnaire. Our data provide information from 1995 and 2006, for four sectors of activity and the aggregate economy, considering 23 European countries, plus the US and Japan. Main findings include...

Using a Bayesian structural vector autoregression (TVP-SVAR) with time-varying parameters and volatility we investigate monetary policy in the United States, in particular its interaction with the formation of inflation expectations and the linkages between monetary policy, inflation...

The spectacular failure of the 150-year old investment bank Lehman Brothers on September 15th, 2008 was a major turning point in the global financial crisis that broke out in the summer 2007. Through the use of stock market data and Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads, this paper examines the...

We use several U.S. and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation with time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the United States and in the euro area. Our methodology...

This paper evaluates and compares the effects of conventional and unconventional monetarypolicies on the corporate debt structure in the United States. It does so by using a vectorautoregression in which policy shocks are identified through high-frequency external instruments.Our results show...