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Forecasting Inflation Using Economic Indicators : The Case of France
Bruneau, Catherine - 2010
In order to provide short run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for France, we assess the forecasting …, even after pre-selection of the variables included in the panel. However, factors included in VAR models exhibit more … stable forecasting performance over time. Results for HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy are very encouraging …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134962
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Forecasting Inflation in the Euro Area
Bruneau, Catherine - 2010
1988:1-2002:3 period, with balanced and unbalanced panels. We provide evidence that factors alone or combined with … indicators help improve upon the simple Autoregressive (AR) model for forecasting HICP core inflation as well total inflation, if …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134965
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Inflation and the Markup in the Euro Area
Bruneau, Catherine - 2010
inflation through an error-correcting mechanism. Structural and forecasting equations exhibiting good performance are therefore …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135043
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The Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the New EU Member States
Jimborean, Ramona - 2011
This paper aims to complete our understanding of the relationship between changes in nominal effective exchange rates and prices in the new EU member states. We investigate the exchange rate pass-through to import, producer and consumer prices for ten Central and Eastern European countries with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121412
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The Reliability of Macroeconomic Forecasts Based on Real Interest Rate Gap Estimates in Real Time : An Assessment for the Euro Area
Mésonnier, Jean-Stéphane - 2010
The real interest rate gap or IRG - the gap between the short term real interest rate and its "natural" level - is a theoretical concept that has attracted much attention in central banks in recent years. This paper aims at clarifying its practical relevance for monetary policy in real time. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136671
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Convergence in Household Credit Demand Across Euro Area Countries : Evidence from Panel Data
de Bandt, Olivier - 2010
The paper contributes to the literature on the convergence of financial systems in the euro area by estimating household credit demand in individual countries. Using the ARDL framework advocated notably by Pesaran et al. (1999), the paper provides evidence on the convergence of long run credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136672
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Stress Testing and Corporate Finance
de Bandt, Olivier - 2010
The article contributes to the literature on financial fragility, studying how macro-economic shocks affect supply and demand in the corporate debt market. We take into account the effect of the competitive environment, as well as the risk level, measured by companies' default rate. The model is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137974
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Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Corporate Financial Fragility
Bruneau, Catherine - 2012
the business cycle. We estimate forecasting equations for firms' bankruptcy using Schumway's (2001) approach and study the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115694
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Credit Ratings and Debt Crises
Bussière, Matthieu - 2012
This paper analyses the role of credit rating agencies in sovereign debt crises. Using a panel of 53 emerging and developing countries with annual data going back to 1977, the paper shows that credit ratings are not very good predictors of debt distress events once tested against a simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100933
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Climate Change in Developing Countries : Global Warming Effects, Transmission Channels and Adaptation Policies
de Bandt, Olivier; Jacolin, Luc; Thibault, Lemaire - 2021
sustained 1°C temperature increase lowers real GDP per capita annual growth by 0.74–1.52 percentage points, irrespective of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219423