We propose in this paper a simulation framework of pandemic in financial system composed of banks, asset markets and interbank markets. This framework aims at complementing the usual stress-test strategies that evaluate the impact of shocks on individual balance-sheets without taking into...

This project presents the analytical framework for macroprudential policy (AFMaP) developed at the Financial Stability Directorate of the Banque de France that could be used to calibrate macroprudential instruments and to provide analytical support to macroprudential policy decision making. In...

We consider the channel consisting in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants. In particular, we analyze liquidity and volatility premia on the French government debt securities market, since these assets are used...

We examine the effects of collateral provision as a potential channel between funding liquidity tensions and the scarcity of market liquidity. This channel consists in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants that...

Recent macroeconomic evolutions during the years 2008 and 2009 have pointed out the impact of financial markets on economic activity. In this paper, we propose to evaluate the ability of a set of financial variables to forecast recessions in the euro area by using a non-linear binary response...

Much of the literature on interest rate pass through assumes banks set retail rates by observing current market rates. We argue instead that banks anticipate the direction of short-term market rates when setting interest rates on loans, mortgages and deposits. If anticipated rates - captured by...

French Abstract:Plusieurs matières premières « critiques » jouent un rôle central dans le déploiement detechnologies essentielles à la transition vers une économie bas-carbone. L'approvisionnementfiable et abordable de ces ressources est soumis à des risques du côté de l'offre, face...

We propose a novel approach to quantify spillovers on financial markets based on a structural version of the Diebold-Yilmaz framework. Key to our approach is a SVARGARCH model that is statistically identified by heteroskedasticity, economically identified by maximum shock contribution and that...

We propose a novel approach to quantify spillovers on financial markets based on a structural version of the Diebold-Yilmaz framework. Key to our approach is a SVARGARCH model that is statistically identified by heteroskedasticity, economically identified by maximum shock contribution and that...

We incorporate external information extracted from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters into the predictions of a Bayesian VAR, using entropic tilting and soft conditioning. The resulting conditional forecasts significantly improve the plain BVAR point and density...